Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##    denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                 Oristano          52 14.67        23.81       0.33
## 2                  Gorizia         138  3.05         4.55       0.99
## 3                   Chieti         606  3.03         6.13       1.57
## 4                  Belluno         904  1.75         5.61       4.45
## 5                     Pisa         804  1.71         3.34       1.92
## 6                  Pescara        1143  1.35         4.48       3.58
## 7                  Isernia          51  1.34         2.00       0.60
## 8                     Asti        1142  1.26         7.33       5.32
## 9                  Salerno         622  1.21         2.47       0.57
## 10                 Imperia        1156  0.83         3.03       5.41
## 11                   Fermo         391  0.78         1.82       2.25
## 12                 Pistoia         568  0.71         1.97       1.94
## 13                   Parma        2887  0.69         2.63       6.39
## 14                  Teramo         626  0.54         1.13       2.03
## 15                  Rimini        1846  0.53         1.54       5.45
## 16                 Catania         808  0.45         3.19       0.73
## 17      Reggio di Calabria         243  0.41         0.83       0.44
## 18           Massa-Carrara         949  0.38         1.71       4.87
## 19                 Bologna        3822  0.36         2.19       3.77
## 20                 Venezia        2177  0.31         1.59       2.55
## 21                 Cremona        5491  0.26         1.37      15.30
## 22                 Ferrara         787  0.18         2.08       2.28
## 23                Grosseto         383  0.17         0.79       1.73
## 24                 Caserta         400  0.17         0.76       0.43
## 25                  Genova        3792  0.17         2.32       4.51
## 26                  Ancona        1737  0.11         1.11       3.69
## 27            Forlì-Cesena        1435  0.10         1.41       3.64
## 28         Pesaro e Urbino        2333  0.10         0.91       6.50
## 29                  Arezzo         567  0.04         1.61       1.65
## 30                  Milano       16112  0.02         1.81       4.96

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##           denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                         Crotone         117  0.00         0.00       0.67
## 2                    Sud Sardegna          86  0.00         0.00       0.25
## 3                       Agrigento         132  0.00         0.00       0.30
## 4                   Caltanissetta         138  0.00         0.00       0.53
## 5                          Ragusa          69  0.00         0.00       0.22
## 6                         Trapani         135  0.00         0.00       0.31
## 7                           Rieti         281  0.00         0.36       1.81
## 8                         Bergamo       10738 -0.01         0.46       9.63
## 9                         Ravenna         934 -0.01         0.86       2.40
## 10          Monza e della Brianza        4157 -0.06         1.44       4.76
## 11                         Napoli        2181 -0.11         1.02       0.71
## 12                          Udine         915 -0.12         0.55       1.73
## 13                       Macerata         922 -0.12         0.88       2.93
## 14                           Lodi        2740 -0.18         0.59      11.90
## 15                          Pavia        3641 -0.18         1.65       6.67
## 16                           Bari        1138 -0.20         2.52       0.91
## 17                        Potenza         168 -0.20         0.00       0.46
## 18          Barletta-Andria-Trani         335 -0.20         0.00       0.86
## 19                        Perugia         976 -0.21         0.10       1.49
## 20                          Lucca        1213 -0.22         1.34       3.13
## 21                         Padova        3693 -0.23         0.71       3.94
## 22                        Viterbo         349 -0.29         0.00       1.10
## 23                    Alessandria        2815 -0.30         1.15       6.68
## 24                       Avellino         427 -0.31         0.00       1.02
## 25                         Rovigo         307 -0.33         0.33       1.31
## 26                      Catanzaro         197 -0.34         0.00       0.55
## 27                  Ascoli Piceno         271 -0.37         0.00       1.31
## 28                          Prato         472 -0.39         1.29       1.83
## 29                           Enna         377 -0.39         1.34       2.29
## 30                        Firenze        2653 -0.40         1.69       2.62
## 31                      Pordenone         596 -0.42         0.85       1.91
## 32                        Trieste        1122 -0.43         1.26       4.78
## 33                         Trento        3590 -0.43         1.64       6.63
## 34                        Messina         497 -0.46         1.64       0.79
## 35                  Vibo Valentia          71 -0.47         0.00       0.44
## 36                         Modena        3411 -0.48         0.62       4.84
## 37                       Piacenza        3393 -0.48         0.71      11.82
## 38           Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         937 -0.51         0.21       5.92
## 39                       Siracusa         183 -0.57         0.55       0.46
## 40                       L'Aquila         237 -0.57         0.00       0.79
## 41                         Foggia         868 -0.58         1.88       1.40
## 42                        Palermo         420 -0.58         0.72       0.34
## 43                          Terni         328 -0.62         0.00       1.45
## 44                         Latina         444 -0.62         0.45       0.77
## 45                       Cagliari         218 -0.63         0.46       0.51
## 46                        Livorno         491 -0.70         0.41       1.47
## 47                        Taranto         243 -0.71         0.41       0.42
## 48                      Frosinone         525 -0.74         0.77       1.07
## 49                        Brescia       12004 -0.76         0.49       9.48
## 50                          Siena         407 -0.77         0.49       1.52
## 51                        Sassari         798 -0.77         0.25       1.62
## 52                         Matera         174 -0.78         0.00       0.88
## 53                       Vercelli         984 -0.79         0.92       5.76
## 54                           Roma        4133 -0.81         1.25       0.95
## 55                Bolzano / Bozen        2394 -0.81         0.59       4.51
## 56                          Lecco        2080 -0.85         0.39       6.17
## 57                        Treviso        2325 -0.86         0.43       2.62
## 58                        Vicenza        2379 -0.93         1.71       2.76
## 59                      La Spezia         777 -1.03         1.30       3.54
## 60                         Varese        2196 -1.05         1.76       2.47
## 61                         Verona        3998 -1.06         0.60       4.32
## 62                          Lecce         452 -1.14         0.22       0.57
## 63                     Campobasso         212 -1.15         0.47       0.96
## 64                      Benevento         170 -1.20         0.00       0.61
## 65                           Como        2550 -1.23         2.49       4.26
## 66             Reggio nell'Emilia        4352 -1.30         0.79       8.18
## 67                         Torino       10278 -1.33         1.32       4.55
## 68                       Brindisi         500 -1.34         3.09       1.27
## 69                        Mantova        2913 -1.69         0.28       7.07
## 70                          Cuneo        2075 -1.96         1.07       3.53
## 71                         Novara        1996 -2.02         0.45       5.41
## 72                         Biella         787 -2.12         0.51       4.48
## 73                        Sondrio         960 -3.08         0.42       5.30
## 74 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1088 -3.09         0.00       8.66
## 75                        Cosenza         408 -3.35         0.25       0.58
## 76                          Nuoro          74 -3.37         0.00       0.35
## 77                         Savona         937 -3.70         1.19       3.39

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##         denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5491           15.30   1
##                            Lodi        2740           11.90   2
##                        Piacenza        3393           11.82   3
##                         Bergamo       10738            9.63   4
##                         Brescia       12004            9.48   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1088            8.66   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4352            8.18   7
##                         Mantova        2913            7.07   8
##                     Alessandria        2815            6.68   9
##                           Pavia        3641            6.67  10
##                          Trento        3590            6.63  11
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2333            6.50  12
##                           Parma        2887            6.39  13
##                           Lecco        2080            6.17  14
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         937            5.92  15
##                        Vercelli         984            5.76  16
##                          Rimini        1846            5.45  17
##                          Novara        1996            5.41  18
##                         Imperia        1156            5.41  19
##                            Asti        1142            5.32  20
##                         Sondrio         960            5.30  21
##                          Milano       16112            4.96  22
##                   Massa-Carrara         949            4.87  23
##                          Modena        3411            4.84  24
##                         Trieste        1122            4.78  25
##           Monza e della Brianza        4157            4.76  26
##                          Torino       10278            4.55  27
##                          Genova        3792            4.51  28
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2394            4.51  29
##                          Biella         787            4.48  30
##                         Belluno         904            4.45  31
##                          Verona        3998            4.32  32
##                            Como        2550            4.26  33
##                          Padova        3693            3.94  34
##                         Bologna        3822            3.77  35
##                          Ancona        1737            3.69  36
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1435            3.64  37
##                         Pescara        1143            3.58  38
##                       La Spezia         777            3.54  39
##                           Cuneo        2075            3.53  40
##                          Savona         937            3.39  41
##                           Lucca        1213            3.13  42
##                        Macerata         922            2.93  43
##                         Vicenza        2379            2.76  44
##                         Firenze        2653            2.62  45
##                         Treviso        2325            2.62  46
##                         Venezia        2177            2.55  47
##                          Varese        2196            2.47  48
##                         Ravenna         934            2.40  49
##                            Enna         377            2.29  50
##                         Ferrara         787            2.28  51
##                           Fermo         391            2.25  52
##                          Teramo         626            2.03  53
##                         Pistoia         568            1.94  54
##                            Pisa         804            1.92  55
##                       Pordenone         596            1.91  56
##                           Prato         472            1.83  57
##                           Rieti         281            1.81  58
##                           Udine         915            1.73  59
##                        Grosseto         383            1.73  60
##                          Arezzo         567            1.65  61
##                         Sassari         798            1.62  62
##                          Chieti         606            1.57  63
##                           Siena         407            1.52  64
##                         Perugia         976            1.49  65
##                         Livorno         491            1.47  66
##                           Terni         328            1.45  67
##                          Foggia         868            1.40  68
##                   Ascoli Piceno         271            1.31  69
##                          Rovigo         307            1.31  70
##                        Brindisi         500            1.27  71
##                         Viterbo         349            1.10  72
##                       Frosinone         525            1.07  73
##                        Avellino         427            1.02  74
##                         Gorizia         138            0.99  75
##                      Campobasso         212            0.96  76
##                            Roma        4133            0.95  77
##                            Bari        1138            0.91  78
##                          Matera         174            0.88  79
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         335            0.86  80
##                         Messina         497            0.79  81
##                        L'Aquila         237            0.79  82
##                          Latina         444            0.77  83
##                         Catania         808            0.73  84
##                          Napoli        2181            0.71  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         170            0.61  87
##                         Isernia          51            0.60  88
##                         Cosenza         408            0.58  89
##                           Lecce         452            0.57  90
##                         Salerno         622            0.57  91
##                       Catanzaro         197            0.55  92
##                   Caltanissetta         138            0.53  93
##                        Cagliari         218            0.51  94
##                         Potenza         168            0.46  95
##                        Siracusa         183            0.46  96
##                   Vibo Valentia          71            0.44  97
##              Reggio di Calabria         243            0.44  98
##                         Caserta         400            0.43  99
##                         Taranto         243            0.42 100
##                           Nuoro          74            0.35 101
##                         Palermo         420            0.34 102
##                        Oristano          52            0.33 103
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 104
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 105
##                    Sud Sardegna          86            0.25 106
##                          Ragusa          69            0.22 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2150  0.8259  1.9421  3.0441  4.5283 15.2972

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Chieti         606        1.571626         6.13           3.10
##  L'Aquila         237        0.792560         0.00           0.57
##   Pescara        1143        3.584095         4.48           3.13
##    Teramo         626        2.032124         1.13           0.59

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Matera         174       0.8791920            0           0.78
##   Potenza         168       0.4603244            0           0.20

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         197       0.5497940         0.00           0.34
##             Cosenza         408       0.5781059         0.25           3.59
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         243       0.4434234         0.83           0.41
##       Vibo Valentia          71       0.4435476         0.00           0.47

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Avellino         427       1.0207838         0.00           0.31
##  Benevento         170       0.6136785         0.00           1.20
##    Caserta         400       0.4333859         0.76           0.59
##     Napoli        2181       0.7069944         1.02           1.13
##    Salerno         622       0.5662200         2.47           1.26

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        3822        3.766931         2.19           1.84
##             Ferrara         787        2.276600         2.08           1.89
##        Forlì-Cesena        1435        3.636345         1.41           1.31
##              Modena        3411        4.835602         0.62           1.10
##               Parma        2887        6.392387         2.63           1.94
##            Piacenza        3393       11.816042         0.71           1.20
##             Ravenna         934        2.398217         0.86           0.87
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4352        8.182128         0.79           2.09
##              Rimini        1846        5.445155         1.54           1.01

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Gorizia         138       0.9899357         4.55           1.49
##  Pordenone         596       1.9069986         0.85           1.26
##    Trieste        1122       4.7847910         1.26           1.69
##      Udine         915       1.7303623         0.55           0.66

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Frosinone         525        1.073437         0.77           1.50
##     Latina         444        0.771833         0.45           1.07
##      Rieti         281        1.807039         0.36           0.36
##       Roma        4133        0.951819         1.25           2.06
##    Viterbo         349        1.100842         0.00           0.29

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Genova        3792        4.507953         2.32           2.16
##    Imperia        1156        5.405911         3.03           2.20
##  La Spezia         777        3.538960         1.30           2.34
##     Savona         937        3.394140         1.19           4.89

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       10738        9.634036         0.46           0.46
##                Brescia       12004        9.482177         0.49           1.24
##                   Como        2550        4.255646         2.49           3.73
##                Cremona        5491       15.297182         1.37           1.10
##                  Lecco        2080        6.165155         0.39           1.23
##                   Lodi        2740       11.902797         0.59           0.77
##                Mantova        2913        7.065381         0.28           1.96
##                 Milano       16112        4.957058         1.81           1.79
##  Monza e della Brianza        4157        4.756647         1.44           1.50
##                  Pavia        3641        6.669866         1.65           1.83
##                Sondrio         960        5.301085         0.42           3.49
##                 Varese        2196        2.465288         1.76           2.81

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1737        3.686114         1.11           1.00
##    Ascoli Piceno         271        1.308048         0.00           0.37
##            Fermo         391        2.249712         1.82           1.04
##         Macerata         922        2.934642         0.88           1.00
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2333        6.500672         0.91           0.81

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##    province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Campobasso         212       0.9582441         0.47           1.62
##     Isernia          51       0.6044158         2.00           0.66

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##              province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        2815        6.681953         1.15           1.45
##                  Asti        1142        5.320586         7.33           6.07
##                Biella         787        4.482160         0.51           2.63
##                 Cuneo        2075        3.534333         1.07           3.03
##                Novara        1996        5.408950         0.45           2.47
##                Torino       10278        4.548748         1.32           2.65
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         937        5.917309         0.21           0.72
##              Vercelli         984        5.757382         0.92           1.72

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1138       0.9089500         2.52           2.72
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         335       0.8589501         0.00           0.20
##               Brindisi         500       1.2723456         3.09           4.43
##                 Foggia         868       1.3950879         1.88           2.46
##                  Lecce         452       0.5684576         0.22           1.36
##                Taranto         243       0.4213220         0.41           1.12

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##      province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Cagliari         218       0.5057559         0.46           1.09
##         Nuoro          74       0.3548310         0.00           3.37
##      Oristano          52       0.3297254        23.81           9.14
##       Sassari         798       1.6233667         0.25           1.02
##  Sud Sardegna          86       0.2452064         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         138       0.5257984         0.00           0.00
##        Catania         808       0.7294381         3.19           2.74
##           Enna         377       2.2877879         1.34           1.74
##        Messina         497       0.7928203         1.64           2.10
##        Palermo         420       0.3353058         0.72           1.30
##         Ragusa          69       0.2150249         0.00           0.00
##       Siracusa         183       0.4583893         0.55           1.12
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         567        1.654730         1.61           1.58
##        Firenze        2653        2.623229         1.69           2.08
##       Grosseto         383        1.728113         0.79           0.62
##        Livorno         491        1.466407         0.41           1.11
##          Lucca        1213        3.127288         1.34           1.56
##  Massa-Carrara         949        4.869713         1.71           1.33
##           Pisa         804        1.918685         3.34           1.63
##        Pistoia         568        1.942060         1.97           1.26
##          Prato         472        1.831473         1.29           1.68
##          Siena         407        1.523221         0.49           1.26

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2394        4.506964         0.59           1.40
##           Trento        3590        6.634658         1.64           2.07

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Perugia         976        1.486939          0.1           0.31
##     Terni         328        1.453688          0.0           0.62

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##                        province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1088        8.657871            0
##  three_day_rate
##            3.09

## [1] "2020-04-20"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Belluno         904        4.454299         5.61           3.86
##    Padova        3693        3.937486         0.71           0.94
##    Rovigo         307        1.306733         0.33           0.66
##   Treviso        2325        2.618815         0.43           1.29
##   Venezia        2177        2.551158         1.59           1.27
##    Verona        3998        4.315179         0.60           1.66
##   Vicenza        2379        2.758523         1.71           2.64

This page last updated: 20/4/2020